Israel election puts Netanyahu’s hold on power under pressure

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces an uncertain political future after exit polls from Tuesday’s general election showed his bloc locked in a close contest with opposition forces led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot.

Projections released after voting ended on October 27 showed neither camp securing the 61 seats required to command a majority in Israel’s 120-member parliament, the Knesset.

The results point to a difficult coalition-building process, with smaller parties potentially determining who forms the next government.

Exit polls from Israeli television stations placed the opposition bloc at around 49 to 53 seats, while Netanyahu’s Likud-led camp was projected to win between 50 and 52 seats, depending on the broadcaster.

Likud emerged as the largest single party in some projections, but that alone would not guarantee Netanyahu another term.

Eisenkot, a former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces who leads the Yashar party, said the results reflected a lack of public confidence in Netanyahu’s continued leadership. He has campaigned to replace the prime minister and form a new government.

The election is Israel’s first since the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023, triggered the war in Gaza and a prolonged period of regional conflict. Security, military service, the government’s handling of the war and Netanyahu’s leadership record have featured prominently in the political contest.

Turnout reached about 77.7 per cent, according to figures reported by Israeli media, marking the highest participation in more than two decades.

Arab-led parties also made a significant showing, with exit polls projecting that they could collectively win about 17 to 18 seats.

Their parliamentary strength could become important in negotiations, although cooperation with them remains politically contentious among several Jewish-led parties.

Neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot’s bloc appeared to have a straightforward route to the parliamentary majority needed to govern.

The gap between the camps means that negotiations with smaller parties could determine the next prime minister, even after the final vote count is completed.

Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, has remained a central figure in the country’s politics for nearly two decades, but his government has faced criticism over security failures surrounding the October 7 attack and its handling of the subsequent war.

Final seat allocations may change as votes are counted, after which political leaders will face the task of assembling a coalition capable of commanding support in the Knesset.